An Engineer

In 2010 Steve Jobs likened PCs to pickup trucks. Farmers may need them but most people drive cars. And by that he meant that most people would use appliance-like tablets running mobile operating systems versus traditional PCs running Windows and MacOS.

Five years later, the transition is occurring slowly, with PC sales estimated by IDC to be dropping about 11% per year. The 2014 data shows that PCs and tablets are about neck and neck. Many folks who need computers (like me) are still buying PCs. For me, a tablet is an optional media consumption device, a luxury item.

But Apple has not given up on their founder’s vision. They are diligently chipping away at the objections of using a tablet over a PC:

• screen is too small
• limited multitasking
• poor OS integration with mechanical wireless keyboards
• no adequate mechanical keyboard solution on the go
• not enough memory and not enough disk for serious computing
• no support for a stylus, which some creative professionals depend on, especially the ones who buy Adobe Creative Suite.

With the latest round of Apple announcements you can see them slowly and meticulously knocking down these objections one by one. The iPad pro, the stylus, the new keyboard, the better support for bluetooth keyboards, the multitasking in iOS; all these changes attempt to realize the Jobs vision.

What’s left?

First and foremost, Apple needs to change the way the App Store works so that independent software vendors (ISVs) can make money. For document-based software that needs only to save its files in the cloud, there is no business model possible through the App Store today. A subscription is not warranted because there really is no ongoing service being offered by the ISV.

Making your app free and ad-supported does not work when you are a niche product. Charging a fee a single time is not the answer because it leaves the ISV with no ongoing economic relationship with the customer. Although PC software is often sold with perpetual licenses, the need for periodic upgrades requires the user to pay money periodically to update.

What’s needed is a way for an ISV to charge for major upgrades while still offering minor point releases for free. And, as John Gruber points out, the ISVs need 30-day free trials. Because that’s the way a lot of software gets sold.

Taking care of these items won’t convert all the users. Engineers still need boxes that they can develop code on and extend. We won’t see engineers switching to tablets with closed operating systems until development environments are completely cloud-based and connectivity is so ubiquitous that requiring a network connection to develop code is not a deterrent.

It’s also interesting that when Apple finally offers a tablet that can replace a PC for a non-technical knowledge worker, it really is no cheaper than a PC. In fact, it is priced higher than most PCs. What it comes down to is a preference for a computer with a touch interface that does not expose the internals of the operating system to the user.

Finally, I am not sure we won’t eventually see a laptop running iOS from Apple. For lots of folks, the laptop form factor works better. The connected rigid keyboard makes it easier to use on a couch, in bed, in an airplane seat, or on a couch. At that point, the main difference between the MS surface computers and Apple IOS laptops will be that iOS laptops won’t allow you to access the legacy OS view.  When you look at the 12inch Apple Macbook, imagining it running iOS versus MacOS is not much of a stretch.